JAKARTA: Indonesia coal demand from Japan will rapidly increase as it may reach between 28 million tons - 30 million tons by the year-end, or about 33% of the total demands from Japan which is 90 million tons this year.On the other hand, coal output of Indonesia is believed to penetrate 340 million tons in this year with the estimated output during the first half of this year to reach 170 million tons.Executive Director of Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) Supriatna Suhala suggests that demand for commodities from Japan started to increase, especially in the third and fourth quarter along with economic recovery in this country after Tsunami disaster. Thus, the condition requires raw materials to drive a generator."Once [as a result of the tsunami disaster] Indonesian coal could not be absorbed by Japan. The volume of unabsorbed coal was between 5 and 6 million tons. However, now the demand from the country began to recover, especially entering the third and fourth quarter this year, "he told Bisnis, yesterday.Besides demand from Japan, as he added, demands from China and India continue to dominate the market of coal export. China imported 36 million-38 million tons and India at 34 million-36 million tons. Besides the three main countries, the coal commodity of Indonesia is also supplied for Asean countries such as Malaysia, Philippine, Thailand and Vietnam.Indonesia also began supplying coal for Sri Lanka and Pakistan. "This year, some countries in the Middle East also began to examine imports from Indonesia. So does Turkey, said Supriatna.For output during the first semester, APBI believes coal output could penetrate more than 170 million tons. Overall in 2011, an output target of 340 million tons is expected to be achieved.According to Supriatna, coal output in this year is not relatively hampered by significant probelms. Of the total coal output, as many as 78.97 million tons or approximately 23% is allocated for domestic market obligation (DMO). Meanwhile, the rest is dedicated for export market.Low realization of DMOOn the other hand, based on data from Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, the realization of the domestic supply for coal until the end of March 2011 has reached 7.4 million tons or 9.4% to DMO plan in 2011 according to Ministerial Decree amounting 78.97 million tons.Actually, there is no problem in terms of coal supply to PLN."The DMO is not achieved because of delays in several steam power plant projects of PLN. By all means, it is caused by technical constraints such as bidding process or coal quality. "Of 78.97 million tons of coal allocation for DMO, PLN needs and private power developers (IPP) is 55 million tons, while the rest is allocated for industrial purposes such as textile mills, cement plant, as well as metallurgy.Referring to the high demand, especially from export market, prospects for the coal industry this year is pretty bright following the good coal price.Coal prices in 2010 recorded a rise of 39%, the price of the main fuel for power plant in Asia is predicted to return an increase of 16%, compared with the coal prices in 2010 of US$98.97 per ton.In fact, the outlook report released by Megacapital Indonesia on July 11, 2011, projects coal average price will be at the level of US$115 per ton in 2011. In 2015, commodity prices were expected to rise 5% to US$126 per ton. (14/Firman Hidranto)(t03/msw)

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